Why Minsk’s 5G Rollout May Be More Hype Than Genuine Progress

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In 2025, Minsk is set to welcome its first 5G coverage zones, heralded by state media as the dawn of a new digital era. President Lukashenko himself signed a decree to accelerate “modern infrastructure” for telecommunications. Telecoms analyses applaud Belarus’s plan for a single, unified 5G network, mirroring Malaysia’s approach, as a cost-efficient model. But here’s the unpopular opinion: this 5G rollout in Minsk may deliver far less benefit to ordinary Belarusians than the hype suggests, serving political optics more than real, everyday needs.

Below, we unpack five reasons why Minsk’s 5G launch risks becoming a prestige project rather than a genuine leap forward for connectivity.

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1. Grand Plans on Paper vs. On-the-Ground Reality

State planners promise 70% coverage of Minsk by 2027 and near-total coverage of regional centres by 2030. Yet, such ambitious timetables often overlook practical hurdles:

• Infrastructure Gaps: Much of Minsk’s existing fibre-optic backhaul was laid during Soviet times. Upgrading it for true 5G capacity—capable of supporting ultra-low latency and gigabit speeds—requires extensive civil works, which are slow and costly.

• Device Penetration: Even if base stations go live, most Belarusian households and small businesses lack 5G-capable devices. With smartphone replacement cycles averaging two to three years, the majority of users will still rely on 4G well into 2027 and beyond.

Testing by Beltelcom and A1 in 2021 showed technical feasibility, but scaling from a handful of test sites to full-city coverage will inevitably strain both budgets and logistics.

2. Marginal Benefits for Everyday Users

5G’s touted advantages—ultra-fast mobile broadband, massive IoT support, and near-zero latency—sound futuristic. Yet, for the average Minsk resident:

• Video Streaming & Social Media: 4G LTE already handles high-definition video and online gaming smoothly in most urban areas. The marginal speed boost of 5G over 4G for these applications will be scarcely noticeable outside tech-savvy circles.

• Smart City Projects: Initiatives like connected traffic lights and environmental sensors are still in pilot phases. Rolling these out city-wide requires coordination across multiple ministries and municipal departments—a process that typically moves at bureaucratic speed.

In other words, while urban tech enthusiasts may covet 5G, the majority of users will see little practical difference in day-to-day internet use.

3. Reinforcing the Digital Divide

Rather than narrowing gaps, a flashy 5G rollout risks deepening the digital divide:

• Urban vs. Rural: The initial focus on Minsk and regional centres means that smaller towns and villages, where connectivity is already spotty, will wait years for upgraded service. According to official plans, nationwide 5G won’t fully arrive until around 2034.

• Economic Barriers: High-end 5G smartphones and data plans come at a premium. Lower-income families may find themselves priced out of the “next-gen” network, even as they subsidise its deployment with their taxes.

This two-tier system could leave rural and economically disadvantaged communities even further behind.

4. Security and Surveillance Concerns

Belarus’s choice to deploy a single, state-controlled 5G network invites questions about privacy and civil liberties:

• Monopoly Risks: A unified network under state oversight simplifies management, but it also centralises control over data flows. In an environment where internet freedom is already constrained, this could bolster surveillance capabilities.

• Vendor Dependencies: Contracts with foreign vendors—most likely Chinese or Russian—have historically come with equipment that can be used for deep-packet inspection and other monitoring techniques. With 5G’s network slicing and edge-computing features, the potential for intrusive data collection only grows.

While government spokespeople argue these measures are necessary for “national security,” citizens may end up trading privacy for promised speed gains.

5. Opportunity Costs: Investment Priorities

Belarusian authorities frame 5G as a catalyst for future economic growth. Yet, given limited public budgets and strained state finances, one must ask:

• Could funds be better spent on universal 4G upgrades? Ensuring solid 4G service throughout the country—including overlooked rural districts—would deliver a more immediate and equitable boost.

• What about digital literacy and e-services? Investments in online public services, teacher training for digital classrooms, and small-business digitisation programs may yield broader social benefits than micro-latencies shaved by 5G.

By prioritising next-gen network glamour, Belarus risks neglecting foundational digital infrastructure that underpins long-term development.

Conclusion

Minsk’s impending 5G rollout is undeniably a headline-grabbing achievement—one that Belarusian officials can tout as proof of technological prowess. But this unpopular opinion urges caution: the real-world benefits for most citizens will be modest, unevenly distributed, and potentially accompanied by greater surveillance and inequality.

For Belarusian readers, the challenge lies in holding authorities accountable: demanding transparent cost-benefit analyses, insisting on rural coverage guarantees, and safeguarding personal data rights. Only by looking beyond the 5G buzz can Minsk ensure its digital future is inclusive, secure, and genuinely transformative.